Methodology
How Kairika turns raw data into what you see — where each number comes from, what is measured versus modeled, and the fixed thresholds behind every colored verdict.
How the numbers are made
Live observations
Current conditions come from the Cyprus Department of Meteorology's open network of 54 automatic stations, updated about every 10 minutes. The feed is raw and not quality-controlled; Kairika archives it continuously to build station history.
Forecasts and models
Hourly and 10-day forecasts, the meteogram and the day ribbon use Open-Meteo's best-match weather models for each place. Dust and PM10 are Copernicus CAMS model estimates, and sea temperature and waves come from Open-Meteo's marine model — model values, not measurements.
Official warnings
Warnings shown on Kairika are issued by the Department of Meteorology and relayed through the EUMETNET MeteoAlarm feed. We display the official text verbatim with its level and validity window, and never issue warnings of our own.
Historical context
Long series (tropical nights, records, warming stripes, the rain season tracker) use the ERA5 reanalysis from 1940 for the seven towns — a model reconstruction, labeled as such — plus official series where they exist: the island rainfall series since 1901 and DoM station climatology. Model and observed sources are never mixed silently; each record states its source. Two reference periods are in use, each matched to its series: the rain season tracker and the warming stripes compare against 1961–1990, while dry-spell and tropical-night normals use the more recent 1991–2020. Every "normal" on the site names the period it uses.
Rain days and dry spells
A day counts as rain from 1.0 mm — the WMO wet-day threshold — so a passing trace never resets a dry streak or the "last rain" answer. Recent observed days combine our own 10-minute station archive with the ERA5 reanalysis for the seven places; days ahead are the Open-Meteo forecast, and a forecast is only colored as rain when at least 1.0 mm is expected. Dry-spell normals are the mean days-since-rain on the same calendar date over 1991–2020, and record spells are the longest rainless runs in ERA5 since 1940.
Station history and quality control
Where stations have public observed archives (Larnaca and Paphos airports, Athalassa), daily history extends decades back via NOAA's GSOD and GHCN datasets. Historical precipitation is cross-validated against ERA5, and implausible rain values are dropped rather than shown.
The sea season curve
The seasonal sea-temperature normal is built from the marine model's daily maxima for 2015–2025, averaged per day of year with light smoothing, across five coastal points. Crossing dates ("the water passes 25°") are read off these curves.
The island map
The temperature surface between stations is interpolated (inverse-distance weighting) from the live readings and clipped to the coastline. Between stations it is an estimate — the dots are the measurements.
The Daily Brief
The morning brief is generated from a validated JSON payload of the day's station and model numbers. The text may only use numbers present in that payload — it never invents or extrapolates a value — and it is not an official forecast.
Your location
“Near me” features run entirely in your browser: the nearest station is computed locally and your coordinates are stored only on your device. They never reach analytics or third parties — the single exception is the spot forecast, requested from our own API with coordinates rounded to about 2 km.
Verdict thresholds
Heat (apparent “feels-like” temperature)
| below 35 °C | Comfortable |
| 35–40 °C | Hot — pace yourself in the sun |
| 40–45 °C | Dangerous heat — avoid exertion 11:00–17:00 |
| 45+ °C | Extreme heat — stay cool, check on the vulnerable |
Dust & particles (PM10)
| below 25 µg/m³ | Clear air |
| 25–50 µg/m³ | Noticeable |
| 50–100 µg/m³ | Unhealthy for sensitive groups (EU daily limit is 50) |
| 100–200 µg/m³ | Unhealthy for everyone |
| 200+ µg/m³ | Severe — stay indoors |
Sea temperature
| below 20 °C | Cold |
| 20–24 °C | Fresh |
| 24–27 °C | Pleasant |
| 27+ °C | Warm |
Waves
| below 1.0 m | Calm |
| 1.0–1.5 m | Choppy — mind small children |
| 1.5+ m | Rough |
Rainfall (daily total)
| 0 mm | Dry |
| under 1.0 mm | Trace — does not count as a rain day |
| 1–5 mm | Light |
| 5–10 mm | Moderate |
| 10–25 mm | Heavy |
| 25–50 mm | Very heavy |
| 50–100 mm | Torrential |
| 100+ mm | Exceptional |
UV index (WHO bands)
| 0–2 | Low |
| 3–5 | Moderate |
| 6–7 | High |
| 8–10 | Very high |
| 11+ | Extreme |
Verdict bands are guidance computed from model and station data. They are not official warnings — for official alerts always check the Cyprus Department of Meteorology. dom.org.cy